Musk: 'AI will be smarter than the smartest person next year'

Elon Musk believes that AI is developing at a very fast pace and will be smarter than humans in 2025-2026.

"If the definition of super artificial intelligence AGI is AI that is smarter than the smartest person, I think it will probably be available next year, or within two years," Elon Musk replied about the AGI development timeline in conversation with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of investment fund Ako Capital, April 8.

American billionaire Elon Musk. Photo: AP

Musk then mentioned Grok, the chatbot launched in November 2023 by xAI company. According to him, the shortage of advanced chips is hindering the training process of the second version of Grok. He said xAI currently needs about 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs , at $30,000-40,000 per chip, to operate Grok 2 and may need 100,000 GPUs for the Grok 3 model.

Grok is the first product of xAI, the company founded by Musk in July 2023. According to Business Insider , Musk purchased 10,000 Nvidia GPUs in the first half of 2023 for AI training, but did not specify which chip model.

Also according to the American billionaire, although the chip shortage is a major obstacle, the power source is the factor inhibiting the development of artificial intelligence technology. "Electricity supply will be very important in the next year or two," he said.

Earlier this month, Musk also commented that AI has a 20% chance of destroying humanity, but it is still worth the risk of developing. In November 2023, he said that AI could go bad if controlled by bad people. He also predicts that artificial intelligence will surpass all human intelligence combined by 2030.

"You are developing AGI. It's almost like raising a child, but a super genius, with God-like intelligence. What matters is how you teach the child," he said. He argues that the best way to achieve AI safety is to develop the technology in a way that forces it to be honest, "don't force it to lie, even if the truth is uncomfortable".

Bao Lam

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